予測力をどう高めていくか

予測力をどう高めていくか
フェルミ推定（大体予測）でよく出る問題
シカゴにいるピアノの調律師の数を求めなさい
①シカゴの人口５００万人
②一世帯あたりの家族数２人
③ピアノを持っている世帯２０世帯のうちの一世帯
④ピアノは一年に一回、調律する
⑤調律移動時間２時間
⑥調律師は日に８時間、週５日　年５０週働く
答え　１２５人
５００万人÷２人２５０万世帯
２５０万世帯÷２０世帯＝１２５０００台
一年の労働時間　８時間×５日×５０週＝１０００台
１２５０００台÷１０００台＝１２５人
現在ほど多様化社会では、フェルミ推定のようなアバウト予測力が大事になる
How do you raise predictive power?
Problem common in a fermi estimate (generally I predict it)
Find the number of tuners of the piano which is in Chicago
① A population of 5 million people of Chicago
② Two number of the families per one household
③ One of 20 households of household which has a piano
④ The piano tunes it once a year
⑤ Tuning movement time two hours
⑥ The tuner works for 50 weeks a year for five days a week for eight hours on a day
125 answers
/2 5 million people 2,500,000 households
2,500,000 households of /20 household of = 125,000
Working hours eight hours *5 day *50 week = 1,000 of one year
125,000 /1,000 = 125
The rough predictive power such as the fermi estimate becomes important in the diversification society as the present