予測力をどう高めていくか
フェルミ推定（大体予測）でよく出る問題
シカゴにいるピアノの調律師の数を求めなさい
①シカゴの人口５００万人
②一世帯あたりの家族数２人
③ピアノを持っている世帯２０世帯のうちの一世帯
④ピアノは一年に一回、調律する
⑤調律移動時間２時間
⑥調律師は日に８時間、週５日 年５０週働く
答え １２５人
５００万人÷２人２５０万世帯
２５０万世帯÷２０世帯＝１２５０００台
一年の労働時間 ８時間×５日×５０週＝１０００台
１２５０００台÷１０００台＝１２５人
現在ほど多様化社会では、フェルミ推定のようなアバウト予測力が大事になる
How do you raise predictive power?
Problem common in a fermi estimate (generally I predict it)
Find the number of tuners of the piano which is in Chicago
① A population of 5 million people of Chicago
② Two number of the families per one household
③ One of 20 households of household which has a piano
④ The piano tunes it once a year
⑤ Tuning movement time two hours
⑥ The tuner works for 50 weeks a year for five days a week for eight hours on a day
125 answers
/2 5 million people 2,500,000 households
2,500,000 households of /20 household of = 125,000
Working hours eight hours *5 day *50 week = 1,000 of one year
125,000 /1,000 = 125
The rough predictive power such as the fermi estimate becomes important in the diversification society as the present
予測力をどう高めていくか
お金の話
コメント
https://pastoralcaremission.org/bbs/board.php?bo_table=free&wr_id=1789716
you’re actually a excellent webmaster. The site loading speed is amazing.
It kind of feels that you are doing any distinctive trick.
Also, The contents are masterwork. you have done a fantastic activity on this topic!
http://old.remain.co.kr/bbs/board.php?bo_table=free&wr_id=1644242
Greetings! Very helpful advice within this article!
It’s the little changes that produce the most important changes.
Thanks for sharing!
Thanks for every other excellent article. Where else may just
anyone get that type of information in such an ideal approach of writing?
I have a presentation subsequent week, and I am at the search for such information.
This website was… how do I say it? Relevant!! Finally I’ve found something that
helped me. Kudos!
I like it when individuals come together and share
thoughts. Great site, keep it up!
Greetings from Carolina! I’m bored at work so I decided to
check out your blog on my iphone during lunch break. I love the info you provide here and can’t
wait to take a look when I get home. I’m surprised at how quick your blog loaded on my cell phone ..
I’m not even using WIFI, just 3G .. Anyways, excellent blog!
I could not refrain from commenting. Exceptionally well written!
You’ve made some decent points there. I checked on the net for more information about the issue and found most people will
go along with your views on this web site.
Way cool! Some extremely valid points! I appreciate you writing this article plus the
rest of the website is also very good.
Its such as you read my mind! You appear to know a lot about
this, like you wrote the ebook in it or something.
I feel that you just can do with some p.c. to force the message house a little bit, however instead of that, this is great
blog. An excellent read. I will certainly be back.
Why users still make use of to read news papers when in this technological globe all is accessible on net?
What i don’t understood is in truth how you are not really much more well-appreciated than you might be right now.
You’re very intelligent. You understand therefore significantly when it comes to this matter, produced me individually believe it from
numerous varied angles. Its like men and women aren’t interested until it’s one thing to do with Girl gaga!
Your own stuffs outstanding. Always care for it up!
Excellent blog here! Additionally your site loads up very
fast! What host are you the usage of? Can I get your associate link for
your host? I wish my web site loaded up as fast as yours lol
I am curious to find out what blog system you have been working with?
I’m having some small security issues with my latest website and I’d like to
find something more risk-free. Do you have any suggestions?
Wonderful beat ! I wish to apprentice even as you amend your website, how can i subscribe for a blog web site?
The account helped me a appropriate deal. I were tiny bit familiar of this your broadcast offered vivid clear
concept
I was suggested this blog by means of my cousin. I’m now not certain whether or not
this publish is written by means of him as no one else know such unique approximately my problem.
You are amazing! Thank you!
I absolutely love your blog and find almost all of your post’s to be exactly I’m looking for.
Does one offer guest writers to write content available
for you? I wouldn’t mind writing a post or elaborating on a
number of the subjects you write in relation to here.
Again, awesome web site!
This blog was… how do you say it? Relevant!!
Finally I have found something that helped me.
Thank you!
Heya! I understand this is somewhat off-topic but I had to
ask. Does running a well-established blog like yours take a lot of work?
I’m brand new to blogging however I do write in my journal everyday.
I’d like to start a blog so I can easily share my personal experience and
feelings online. Please let me know if you have any suggestions or tips for new aspiring blog
owners. Thankyou!
Thanks for finally talking about > 予測力をどう高めていくか | 是永和夫のサイト < Loved it!
I like the helpful information you provide in your articles.
I’ll bookmark your weblog and check again here regularly.
I’m quite certain I’ll learn many new stuff right
here! Best of luck for the next!
Wow, this post is good, my sister is analyzing such things, therefore
I am going to convey her.
Stunning story there. What happened after?
Thanks!
I really like it when people get together and share
thoughts. Great website, stick with it!
Wonderful blog you have here but I was curious if you knew of any
message boards that cover the same topics discussed here?
I’d really love to be a part of group where I can get responses from other experienced people that share the same interest.
If you have any suggestions, please let me know. Many thanks!
I was wondering if you ever thought of changing the structure of your blog?
Its very well written; I love what youve got to say.
But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people
could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of text
for only having one or two images. Maybe you could space it
out better?
Excellent items from you, man. I have have in mind your stuff
previous to and you are simply extremely fantastic. I really
like what you have received here, really like what you are stating and the best way through which you assert it.
You’re making it entertaining and you continue to take care of to keep it wise.
I can’t wait to read far more from you. This is actually a tremendous web site.
I am truly thankful to the owner of this web page who has shared this wonderful post
at at this place.
Hi there mates, its wonderful paragraph concerning tutoringand fully explained, keep it up
all the time.
I got this web site from my buddy who told me concerning this site and now this time I am browsing this web page and reading very informative posts at this
time.
Outstanding quest there. What happened after? Good luck!
Very energetic blog, I loved that a lot. Will there be a part 2?
Thanks designed for sharing such a pleasant idea, post
is good, thats why i have read it fully
Thank you for the auspicious writeup. It in fact was a entertainment account it.
Look complex to more delivered agreeable from you!
By the way, how could we communicate?
Hi there, I discovered your blog by means of Google
even as searching for a comparable subject, your site got here
up, it seems to be good. I’ve bookmarked it in my
google bookmarks.
Hello there, simply turned into aware of your weblog thru Google,
and located that it is really informative. I’m gonna watch out for
brussels. I will appreciate should you proceed this in future.
Many people will probably be benefited from
your writing. Cheers!
http://xn--o01bq9wunc92bgw3a.xn--3e0b707e/bbs/board.php?bo_table=free&wr_id=764932
Excellent write-up. I definitely love this website.
Stick with it!
http://yjintl.co.kr/bbs/board.php?bo_table=free&wr_id=1455
Профессиональный сервисный центр по ремонту бытовой техники с выездом на дом.
Мы предлагаем: ремонт крупногабаритной техники в москве
Наши мастера оперативно устранят неисправности вашего устройства в сервисе или с выездом на дом!
Профессиональный сервисный центр по ремонту компьютеров и ноутбуков в Москве.
Мы предлагаем: ремонт макбук москва
Наши мастера оперативно устранят неисправности вашего устройства в сервисе или с выездом на дом!